Box Office Preview: ‘Mission: Impossible’ To Defeat ‘Vacations’

Tom Cruises’ Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is on track to win the box office weekend with an estimated $40 million across 3,800 locations, according to analysts.

“It seems low to me,” said Eric Handler, an analyst with MKM Partners. “People seem to be turning out this summer for good movies, and this is a good movie.”

The fifth installment in the Mission: Impossible series, which features Cruise clinging to the side of an Airbus A400, is directed by Christopher McQuarrie. The action flick co-stars Jeremy Renner, Simon Pegg, Rebecca Ferguson, Ving Rhames, Sean Harris and Alec Baldwin.

Below is the official synopsis for Paramount and Skydance Productions’ Rogue Nation:

With the IMF disbanded, and Ethan (Tom Cruise) out in the cold, the team now faces off against a network of highly skilled special agents, the Syndicate. These highly trained operatives are hellbent on creating a new world order through an escalating series of terrorist attacks. Ethan gathers his team and joins forces with disavowed British agent Ilsa Faust (Rebecca Ferguson), who may or may not be a member of this rogue nation, as the group faces their most impossible mission yet.

“I think it will pick up as word of mouth gets around,” said Shawn Robbins, assistant editor of BoxOffice.com. “It seems like it could stick around well into August.”

With a $150 million price tag, Rogue Nation currently holds a 90 percent “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes from critics.

Hitting the road early is Vacation, debuting Tuesday night in select theaters before playing everywhere Wednesday. Analysts predict the R-rated comedy, which cost $31 million to make, will open in the $30 million-$35 million range for the five days across 3,411 locations.

Directed by Harold Ramis, the National Lampoon’s Vacation reboot picks up as Rusty Griswold, now grown, takes his own family on a vacation. It stars Ed Helms as Rusty, Christina Applegate as Griswold’s wife, Leslie Mann as Audrey Griswold (Rusty’s sister) and Chris Hemsworth as Audrey’s husband, an anchorman named Stone Crandall. Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo make cameos.

Currently, the film holds a dismal 24 percent “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes from critics, who equally weren’t fond of comedies like We’re the Millers and Identity Thief.